No Medals For Many Housing Markets

Just to prove that not all of the UK is enjoying the bounce seen in London and parts of the south-east, it's interesting to look at new data from Glasgow.

On the surface, Scotland's second city ought to be doing well.

The upcoming Commonwealth Games could arguably be producing a feel-good factor: for example, there is evidence it is prompting the reinvention of Glasgow as a conference centre, with 200 international business executives taking part in the Commonwealth Games Business Conference in July, while the building or restoration of games venues has been a spur to employment in the city.

However, this has yet to translate into house values.

Although prices in Glasgow and the west of Scotland rose by £2,000 in the last three months of 2013 this was not enough to offset falls earlier in the year. As a result average selling prices remain just over two per cent lower than in late 2012.

"There are now some tentative signs that prices have at least stabilised. It's rare, for example, to see prices rising in the last three months of the year. In five out of the last six years, prices have fallen between the third and fourth quarters of the year. Moreover, the stock of properties for sale fell by 23 per cent during 2013 as demand outstripped supply" says Mark Hordern, chief executive of the Glasgow Solicitors' Property Centre.

However, as these figures below demonstrate, values are still well below their pre-downturn peak. Average year-end sale prices last month were scarcely more than they were in late 2005 and that's not even taking into account the effect of inflation.

There does not look to be a bubble in this city's housing market anytime soon.

Average Year-end Selling Prices, Glasgow/West of Scotland

2000: £64,382
2001: £70,214
2002: £82,125
2003: £97,380
2004: £110,070
2005: £117,730
2006: £131,985
2007: £142,461
2008: £128,277
2009: £125,277
2010: £123,730
2011: £121,351
2012: £122,307
2013: £119,672

Source: GSPC

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