KFH 2014: Mid-Range London Sales Volumes and Prices Up, Rents Steady

Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward, the 45-office estate agency covering most of London, is the latest agency to forecast next year’s market.

It does not have a research department so why am I including it?

Firstly its breadth of activity across the capital is large (Southgate to Crystal Palace, Ealing to Blackheath) - much more extensive than most high end agents who concentrate merely on central London.

Secondly, its price range is - by London standards - mid-range, which again gives it a voice in a market largely ignored by the high-end agencies. Thirdly, it has a large active lettings department, again adding authority to its views for the coming year.

So, KFH’s 2014 sales forecasts look like this:

- transaction levels in London (fairly static at about 90,000 per year from 2010 to 2012) likely to hit 105,000 by the end of 2013;

- this will rise to over 115,000 in 2014 (still less than the 160,000 seen in 2006 and 2007);

- the confluence of Help To Buy, Funding For Lending and a generally improved economic climate suggests a seven to 10 per cent price rise in 2014.

“We’ll see the past year’s level of activity continue throughout 2014 although with a much stronger first half than 2013, resulting in further upward pressure on both asking and selling prices” according to KFH managing director Lee Watts.

And KFH’s 2014 lettings forecasts are:

- 2013 to end with a full-year rental increase of an average five per cent, following a 15 per cent increase in rental transaction levels during the year;

- continuation of the trend for longer tenancies, currently averaging at 16 months and set to lengthen further next year;

- transaction volumes will rise a further 15 per cent in 2014, yields are likely to remain stable at about five per cent, and rent levels should remain stable.

Other agencies' and consultancies' forecasts will appear here as they are released...

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