JLL lacks the major agency network of some forecasters, like Savills, and its predictions lack a fine grain of regional detail as a result.
But JLL has a strong research team in the shape of Adam Challis (ex-Hamptons), Neil Chegwidden (ex-Cluttons) and Jon Neale (ex-Knight Frank and ex-Estates Gazette).
Its UK mainstream house price forecast is:
- 2014 +5.0%
- 2015 +5.5%
- 2016 +6.5%
- 2017 +4.0%
- 2018 +4.5%
"2014 will be the first year of 'confident' recovery, spearheaded by London and the south east. Banks will be less rigid in their lending" suggests Adam Challis.
Unusually, at least compared to other forecasts so far this year, JLL is not factoring in a reduction in prices (triggered by a reduction in activity) in election year, 2015.
JLL's specific 2014 predictions are:
- UK mainstream prices up 5.0%
- Greater London mainstream prices up 8.0%
- south of England mainstream up 5.0%
- Midlands, northern England and Scotland up 3.5%
- UK housing transactions will rise 12% to 1.18m
- housing completions in England will increase to 120,000
Surprisingly (and of course of interest to just a few journalists and almost no one else) JLL chose to launch its forecast on the same day on which Savills had embargoed its own prediction. The latter - promoted extensively by Savills' formidable PR machine - dominated most of the residential property social media coverage and old-fashioned column inches that day.
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