Carter Jonas is the latest agency to give its 2013 forecast: like so many agencies with good research departments (and Catherine Penman, who leads it, is one of the best) the forecast concentrates on London and top-end country property.
Its predictions make four key points:
- Unlike many comparable agencies Carter Jonas believes prime central London values will rise in 2013. It will be “less than five per cent” and will happen thanks to its “immunity to the wider economic context”;
- But PCL homes valued at £2m or thereabouts are being hit by the stamp duty rise from five to seven per cent and as a result “are now seeing a pricing correction [a fall to you and me] of anything between seven and 10 per cent”;
- Top end country houses “are predicted to marginally fall between two and five per cent” next year;
- Carter Jonas believes these country house price falls, coupled with London price rises, may hasten a growing move by owners from town to country. Catherine Penman says: “With the realisation of an extended period of austerity the expectations of vendors and purchasers in terms of market value will realign. Rather than procrastinate in the anticipation of any value improvement, they will settle for a lifestyle choice outside of London.”
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