2011 And Beyond - JLL Joins The Doves

Jones Lang LaSalle is a familiar name to industry anoraks, less so to mere mortals in the outside world. But that is because many of JLL’s activities are below the fold, helping developers find funds to build homes, advising housing associations or regeneration bodies on residential market prospects.

The firm is therefore a big cheese – it just seems like a small player to the less well-informed.

Its analysis of 2010 is standard enough: it anticipates prices ending the year much as they started, with autumn and winter falls negating spring rises. It also warns that new homes completions are 11.4% down on 2009 levels.

But its forecast for the years ahead bucks the trend amongst property insiders.

Buoyed by a surge in new home starts (up 56.6% on the admittedly-shocking level of this time in 2009) JLL believes house prices across the UK will fall an average of just 1% next year before three successive years of healthy rises. London, almost inevitably, will perform even better all round.

Where JLL does agree with other analysts is in its perception of a north-south divide. Despite the rosy UK-wide picture, northern England and the Midlands will rise only 3% in 2012 and 7% in each of 2013 and 2014. Contrast that with southern England, rising 7% in 2012, 11% in 2013 and another 8% in 2014.

JLL is also working with the The Digital Property Group on mapping sale prices in Greater London on a price per square foot basis. Outer London is routinely about £300 to £500 per square foot while central west London – the Kensington, Chelsea, Notting Hill, Holland Park areas – fetch £1,300 to £1,500 and some exceptional properties up to £1,950 psf.

As ever, when it comes to central London there appears to be little in the way of a downturn.

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