2011 And Beyond - CBRE Keeping It Real

CBRE is the latest residential industry player to use its 2011 forecast as an opportunity to break bad news - that the downturn in transactions, building volumes and values is now more like a long term trend than a short term blip.

The company, perhaps little known to casual property observers because it is not a high street agency, is better recognised as a consultancy for developers. But its research department, although small, is well respected. It says for next year:

- transaction levels seem stuck 25 per cent below old long term averages;

- 2010 price growth will dwindle to 0% by Christmas;

- 2011 will see unquantified "moderately declining prices";

- the mortgage shortage will worsen under FSA regulatory changes;

- the private rented sector will grow because of affordability and accessibility issues in the sales market;

- it remains "uncertain" whether the coalition's espousal of market rents in the social sector will indirectly create enough homes to compensate for the £2bn capital cuts it announced last month;

- there remains worry over a double dip recession.

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